What is the impact of this epidemic on China's economy?

This pneumonia epidemic affects the hearts of people across the country. Now many people worry that the epidemic will have a direct or indirect negative impact on China's economy. At the same time, it will also have a negative impact on the survival and development of all walks of life. However, experts believe that if the pneumonia epidemic is controlled quickly and will no longer spread outside, it will affect the domestic GDP growth for a quarter at most. This round of pneumonia epidemic will bring the Chinese economy the same as the SRAS disease in 2003. The impact is very limited.

And we believe that although the impact of the current epidemic on the domestic economy is only one or two quarters, the impact on many industries will be long-term, which is probably difficult to change: first, the consumption and service industries are inevitable Under shock. When the pneumonia epidemic comes, many people cannot go out to work, they can only stay at home, so that their income will be reduced and their spending power will be weakened. More importantly, the pneumonia epidemic is to prevent everyone from going to crowded places, and the service industry just needs people to come to consume, so the domestic service industry will be greatly affected.

Second, transportation activities have plummeted. When an epidemic occurs, the population should reduce the number of movements as much as possible to prevent human-to-person contact infection, so the movement of people in transportation will be reduced. Third, some industries and manufacturing industries will also be in a downturn, because the epidemic requires factories to shut down for a long period of time. Even if the production line is resumed later, the products produced by enterprises will also suffer from slow sales. It is estimated that the negative degree of PMI and PPI indexes will further deteriorate in the short term.

In the face of the short-term impact of the epidemic on the Chinese economy, many people suggest that the central bank should lower interest rates and RRRs immediately after the holiday to release more liquidity and reduce the downward pressure on the domestic economy. However, we believe that RRR cuts or interest rate cuts are very limited in reducing the downward pressure on China's real economy, and are likely to cause inflation and exchange rate depreciation. Therefore, it is necessary to reduce the burden and pressure of real enterprises by means of tax and fee reduction. And increase direct financing channels such as stock market, bond market, equity trading market and so on. More critically, accelerate ownership reform and introduce private investment into monopoly industries.

With regard to the impact of the epidemic on the Chinese economy, we would like to express three points of view: First, the sooner the epidemic is controlled, the more beneficial it will be to the Chinese economy. In response to this epidemic, the government took early response measures to effectively prevent the widespread spread of the epidemic. At least there has not been a large-scale infection of medical personnel. If the epidemic can be extinguished in the short term, the impact on the Chinese economy will be short-lived. However, under pessimistic expectations, consumption, accommodation, catering, aviation and other fields took a hit.

Furthermore, for the pneumonia epidemic, we must be prepared for a protracted war. Taking SARS as an example, the first patient of SARS discovered in mid-November 2002 that the outbreak accelerated from March to May 2003, reaching a peak from about 90 days after the outbreak of the virus, and was basically contained by June. More than six months. The first case of the new coronavirus was discovered on December 8th, and it began to concentrate in about 50 days (about January 20th). It is expected to reach a peak in about 90 days, near the end of about 4 months (early April), The epidemic ended in early May.

Finally, this round of outbreaks is definitely more harmful to the economy than SRAS. At that time, the Chinese economy had just entered the WTO, and it was still in a period of rapid economic boom. In addition, a large amount of domestic and foreign investment increased significantly, and the expansion of the demographic dividend. Therefore, the economy quickly turned around and the epidemic did not have much impact on the Chinese economy. However, as the downward pressure on China's economy continues, the marginal impact of the impact of the epidemic may be greater and the release time may be longer.

How much impact will the pneumonia epidemic have on China's economy? It depends on the degree of harm and the duration of the current epidemic. If you optimistically estimate that the epidemic will soon be brought under control, then China's economy will be affected in the short term, and it will have a greater impact on some industries. If the epidemic continues until the end of May, the impact on the Chinese economy will be more obvious, and more industries will be affected. Therefore, we hope that this round of epidemic will pass sooner, and some service and industrial enterprises can be less dragged down. Gradually return to normal track.